Keynes vs. Alesina. Alesina chi?

Bell’articolo su Business Week dove si sintetizza le ultime discussioni in materia di politiche fiscali e stimoli vari. Il punto di vista di Alesina:

told the European Union’s economic and finance ministers that “large, credible, and decisive” spending cuts to reduce budget deficits have frequently been followed by economic growth. He backed his proposal with historical research on rich countries’ experiences since 1980. Later, at the Group of 20 summit in Toronto on June 26-27, the presidents and prime ministers of the advanced economies agreed to shrink their budget gaps by half or more by 2013. That put pressure on President Barack Obama to follow the lead of cost-cutters such as Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Says Alesina: “I think the Germans are right.”

Il suo recente lavoro, sul quale l’Unione Europea sembra basare le sue attuali e future politiche fiscali, mostra che

Alesina’s own research shows mixed results from deficit-cutting. He identified 26 examples since 1980 of deficit reductions that triggered growth of gross domestic product and 21 that lowered government debt substantially. He found only nine double victories in which government policymakers managed both to expand their economies and reduce debt. (Among them: Ireland in 2000, and the Netherlands and Norway in 2006).

In soldoni, quindi:

The bottom line Alesina has provided the theoretical ammunition fiscal conservatives want. The Keynesians say that his research does not apply.


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